How This Bizarre Campaign Shattered the Typical Coach of the Year Formula.
Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.
In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.
However this year's race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.
This is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.
Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.
The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.
During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal year!
The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he falls short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record
The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.
Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.
Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.
The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3
Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.
Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.
Still
